UN summit next week: Only 36 countries submit new climate pledges as September deadline looms

With a rapidly approaching deadline and a pivotal UN climate summit slated for September 24 in New York, just 36 countries have filed their updated national climate commitments. The gathering—co-chaired by UN secretary-general António Guterres and Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—comes at a crucial moment ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where the next decade of climate action will be tested.

A slow trickle of new pledges

Under the Paris Agreement, governments were due to submit their next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) earlier this year. After an initial February cutoff was missed, the deadline was pushed to the end of September so that the UN can compile an NDC Synthesis Report in October. Yet as of September 18, only 36 submissions had arrived, with Australia among the latest.

Analysts warn that some of the heaviest emitters—together responsible for the vast majority of potential emissions cuts—are still on the sidelines. Expectations are high that several G20 economies, including China and members of the European Union, will use the summit to unveil their plans. Experts from leading climate institutes say the world is watching to see whether these updated pledges can close the gap between aspiration and delivery.

High-level attendance, big decisions

The summit falls during the high-level week of the UN General Assembly and is set to draw representatives from at least 100 countries, including around 40 heads of state and government. Delegations from Mexico, Australia, South Africa, China (led by the vice premier), Türkiye, and Pakistan are among those expected. India has yet to confirm its presence and has not submitted an updated NDC, though it has already surpassed a key goal on non-fossil power capacity ahead of schedule and maintains a target to cut the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33–35% by 2030 from 2005 levels.

UN climate officials say more plans are in the pipeline. According to the secretary-general’s team, countries have built more rigorous internal processes since the first round of NDCs nearly a decade ago, and many are finalizing their submissions. The breadth of participation in New York is being cast as a sign that multilateral climate cooperation remains intact despite a turbulent geopolitical backdrop.

From promises to proof of progress

The credibility test for this new wave of NDCs is whether they convert global commitments into concrete action. Governments agreed at last year’s climate conference in Dubai to accelerate the rollout of clean energy and efficiency, curb fossil fuel dependence, and halt deforestation. Translating those headline goals into national targets—tripling renewable capacity, doubling energy efficiency, protecting forests, and charting a clear path away from unabated fossil fuels—will reveal how serious countries are about keeping the Paris temperature goals within reach.

Another essential question is alignment with net-zero by mid-century. Experts argue that durable plans need sector-by-sector detail—especially in energy, transport, food systems, and agriculture—where policy choices can make or break the transition. They also point to an “implementation gap”: while ambition has risen since Paris, delivery lags. Rising energy demand in developing economies and global supply-chain frictions are intensifying the challenge, increasing the risk that warming could overshoot 1.5°C and drift toward far more dangerous levels.

Setting the stage for Belém

This summit is more than a checkpoint; it is a directional moment before COP30. Brazil’s presidency next year is expected to emphasize forest protection, clean energy growth, and a just transition. The strength and specificity of the NDCs tabled now will shape negotiations in Belém: they will influence how countries calibrate finance needs, how responsibly the world phases down fossil fuels, and how quickly economies harness clean infrastructure to drive growth.

UN climate leadership describes the New York meeting as both stocktake and springboard—an opportunity to gauge progress since the Paris Agreement and to set a higher bar for the coming decade. The moment will also test whether countries can pair emissions cuts with resilience measures that protect communities from escalating climate risks.

What to watch next week

• Major-economy submissions: Do China, the EU, and other G20 members file new NDCs—and how ambitious are they?
• Energy transition clarity: Are there measurable targets to triple renewables, double efficiency, and curb fossil fuel use?
• Deforestation and land use: Do plans include robust protections for forests and nature-positive strategies?
• Sector roadmaps: Are there concrete policies for power, transport, agriculture, and food systems?
• Implementation pathways: Beyond targets, do countries outline timelines, regulatory steps, and investment plans to deliver?
• Alignment with net-zero: Are near-term actions consistent with a 2050 net-zero trajectory?

With the September deadline days away, the summit’s outcomes will signal whether the world is ready to shift from incremental progress to decisive action. The number of new pledges matters—but the depth, credibility, and readiness to implement them will matter more. What lands in New York could set the tone for COP30 and the climate decade ahead.