China’s emissions to peak later than previously forecast, experts say

China’s greenhouse gas emissions may crest later than once thought, according to a fresh poll of climate specialists that shifts expectations toward the latter half of this decade. The center of gravity among respondents now points to 2028 as the most likely peak year, a notable delay from last year’s outlook.

The fourth annual edition of an international climate transition survey finds only about one in five experts believe China’s emissions have already peaked or will do so this year. Roughly seven in 10 expect the peak to arrive by 2030, with 2028 drawing the largest share of votes. In the previous survey, 44 percent of respondents anticipated a peak by 2025 or earlier, underscoring how economic and energy trends over the past year have altered expectations.

The poll gathered insights from 68 analysts working across universities, government agencies, and the energy and sustainable development sectors. While not an official forecast, the results offer a window into how closely watchers of China’s energy system interpret the push and pull between rapid clean energy deployment and persistent pressures from heavy industry and power demand.

Why expectations are drifting later

Analysts point to several forces that could be nudging the peak further out. Resurgent electricity demand, continued expansion of coal-fired power as a buffer against grid stress, and energy-intensive growth in sectors like steel and cement have all weighed on near-term emissions. Variable hydropower output during drought years has added to the challenge, at times increasing reliance on fossil generation to ensure reliability during peak loads.

At the same time, China’s buildout of clean energy is unprecedented: the country has been installing wind and solar at record pace, scaling up battery storage, and accelerating electric vehicle adoption. These shifts are already moderating emissions growth in the power and transport sectors. Many experts expect the full effect of these investments to accelerate late in the decade as grids modernize, coal utilization factors fall, and the industrial sector begins to electrify and adopt low-carbon fuels.

A new 2035 target—likely to be surpassed

Beijing recently set a goal to reduce emissions 7–10 percent below their peak level by 2035—its first explicit commitment to bring absolute emissions down after the peak. Climate specialists broadly view this as a modest step relative to the trajectory required to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius. Yet more than two-thirds of the survey’s respondents expect China to “slightly” or “significantly” outperform this target if current clean energy momentum is sustained.

Potential overperformance reflects three dynamics: faster-than-expected deployment of renewable capacity, improvements in energy efficiency across industry and buildings, and the maturation of policy tools such as provincial emissions caps and carbon market reforms. The pace of coal retirements and the curtailment of new high-emitting industrial capacity will determine how quickly total emissions can bend downward after the peak.

Global stakes

As the world’s largest single source of greenhouse gases, China’s emissions path is pivotal for the planet’s carbon budget. Progress in Beijing carries outsized weight at a time when climate policy has ebbed and flowed in other major economies. With global demand for clean technologies surging, China’s manufacturing scale in solar, batteries, and electric vehicles is also shaping the speed and affordability of decarbonization far beyond its borders.

What to watch next

The timing of China’s peak will hinge on several near-term decisions and structural shifts:

• Power sector reforms that enable deeper integration of wind, solar, and storage while reducing curtailment and coal backup needs.
• Policies to curb new high-emissions industrial capacity and accelerate low-carbon materials, recycling, and efficiency.
• Infrastructure for demand-side management and electrification, especially in heavy industry and buildings.
• Strengthening and expansion of the national emissions trading system to cover more sectors and drive down carbon intensity.

While the survey signals slippage in the expected peak year compared with last year’s optimism, it also highlights a growing conviction that once the peak is reached, China can push emissions lower—potentially faster than its new 2035 goal implies. The next few years, defined by choices on coal utilization, grid modernization, and industrial upgrading, will clarify whether the country locks in a late peak with a steep descent, or a plateau that lingers.

For a world racing to stabilize the climate, the difference between those outcomes will reverberate far beyond China’s borders.