1.5 Million Australians Living in Coastal Areas at Risk from Rising Sea Levels by 2050: Climate Risk Report

Australia’s first nationwide climate risk assessment warns that rising seas could directly affect about 1.5 million people living along the coast by mid-century, reshaping suburbs, infrastructure, and local economies. The analysis concludes Australia has already warmed beyond 1.5°C above pre‑industrial levels on average, and that each fraction of a degree of additional warming will escalate the frequency and severity of impacts.

Coastal communities on the frontline

Low‑lying suburbs, estuaries, and beachside towns face a growing likelihood of tidal inundation, storm surge damage, and accelerating erosion. Roads, ports, rail corridors, wastewater systems, and energy assets located near the shoreline are especially exposed. As these hazards intensify, households and councils are likely to confront higher maintenance costs, rising insurance premiums, and, in some locations, reduced insurability. Property markets may begin to reflect these risks, with broader consequences for local government revenues and community services.

Warming already locked in, impacts compounding

The assessment finds that Australia’s climate has warmed beyond 1.5°C, increasing baseline risk for extreme heat, bushfire weather, intense rainfall, and marine heatwaves. The report emphasizes the non‑linear nature of climate hazards: every additional increment of warming amplifies compound events—such as heat following flooding—that strain emergency response, public health, and infrastructure more than isolated events would. This compounding effect heightens the urgency of both cutting emissions and accelerating adaptation across the economy.

Who is most at risk?

Risk is not spread evenly. Northern Australia faces heightened exposure to cyclones, extreme rainfall, and coastal inundation. Remote communities often contend with limited redundancy in power, water, transport and health services, making disaster recovery slower and more costly. On the fringes of major cities, fast‑growing outer suburbs—many built on low‑lying land—may experience frequent flooding and heat stress that exceeds current design assumptions. First Nations communities, including those with deep cultural and livelihood ties to coasts, rivers, and sea country, face disproportionate impacts and must be supported to lead place‑based solutions.

Beyond the shoreline: cascading national risks

The implications reach far beyond coastal boundaries. More frequent heat extremes threaten worker safety, agricultural productivity, and electricity demand peaks. Floods that cut transport corridors ripple through supply chains, limiting access to food, fuel, and medical supplies. Drought and higher evaporation challenge water security for towns, irrigation districts, and ecosystems, while marine heatwaves and ocean acidification jeopardize fisheries, coral reefs, and tourism. Financial risks—spanning mortgages, insurance, and public budgets—are likely to increase as climate impacts accumulate.

Adaptation must scale quickly

The assessment underscores that adaptation planning needs to be faster, better coordinated, and integrated into everyday decisions. Priorities include:

• Embedding climate risk into land‑use planning, zoning, and building codes to avoid locking in exposure.
• Investing in resilient infrastructure: elevating or relocating assets, improving drainage and floodways, and designing for heat.
• Expanding nature‑based defenses—such as restoring mangroves, dunes, wetlands and saltmarsh—to buffer coasts and reduce erosion.
• Strengthening early warning systems, evacuation routes, and community preparedness, with special support for remote and at‑risk populations.
• Co‑designing solutions with First Nations communities to incorporate cultural knowledge and stewardship.
• Developing clear pathways for difficult decisions, including managed retreat where protection is neither feasible nor safe.

Mitigation remains decisive

While adaptation can reduce harm, the scale of future damage is ultimately determined by emissions. With a 2035 target decision imminent, aligning national goals with a steep decline in greenhouse gases this decade would help limit further warming and stabilize long‑term risks. Key opportunities include rapidly expanding renewable electricity, electrifying homes, transport and industry, cutting methane and other non‑CO₂ pollutants, and supporting nature‑based carbon sequestration that also restores ecosystems.

A turning point for climate risk governance

Described as the most comprehensive climate risk analysis undertaken by the Commonwealth to date, the assessment calls for whole‑of‑government coordination and stable policy settings to guide investment. It recommends consistent risk metrics, improved climate data and projections, and clear accountability across sectors and jurisdictions. Businesses and communities, it notes, need predictable frameworks to plan upgrades, insure assets, and safeguard livelihoods.

What happens next

The findings arrive as governments and industries weigh long‑lived decisions on housing, energy, transport, and water. Choices made in the next few years will determine whether high‑risk development is avoided, whether infrastructure is built for tomorrow’s climate—not yesterday’s—and whether the most exposed communities receive the support they need. The message is clear: climate risks are already here, but decisive action can still reduce losses and protect the places Australians call home.