Up to 185,000 Queensland homes could be at ‘very high risk’ with many uninsurable if global heating unchecked

Queensland stands on the frontline of Australia’s climate hazards, with a federal assessment warning that up to 185,000 homes could fall into the “very high risk” category this century if global heating continues to rise. The report cautions that, as temperatures increase, natural disasters are expected to strike more often and with greater intensity—pushing many households toward the edge of insurability.

Escalating hazards across the north

The national climate risk assessment, released by the Australian government this week, identifies northern regions—including Queensland, the Northern Territory and northern Western Australia—as exposed to multiple, overlapping threats: searing heatwaves, riverine and flash flooding, tropical cyclones and fire weather. It also notes that a larger share of people in these regions live in locations already prone to climate extremes, multiplying the potential for costly and disruptive impacts.

Insurance is a growing fault line. The assessment highlights that northern Australia has markedly lower coverage than the rest of the country, with non-insurance rates around 20%—nearly double elsewhere. As risks climb and premiums reflect that exposure, more households are expected to pare back coverage or drop policies entirely.

A narrowing window to limit losses

The assessment models three warming pathways—1.5C, 2C and 3C above pre‑industrial levels. Under a 1.5C scenario, roughly aligned with the ambitions of the Paris agreement, about 175,000 Queensland homes would be classified as high risk. At 3C, that number rises to 185,000. The sobering twist: average warming across the continent has already reached approximately 1.5C, meaning today’s extreme weather is happening on a planet as hot as the most optimistic of the modeled futures.

Queensland’s exposure is particularly acute. According to the Queensland Conservation Council, 18 of Australia’s 20 most climate-exposed localities are in the Sunshine State. “If Queensland is the canary, the air is already thin,” said Dave Copeman, the council’s director. “People in Brisbane, Townsville and across the north who live near floodplains or coastlines are making agonizing decisions about whether to stay or sell. That’s not a personal failure—it’s the legacy of planning that ignored escalating climate risk.”

Insurance affordability: the hidden crisis

Townsville is emblematic. A devastating 2019 flood was described at the time as a once-in-a-lifetime deluge. Six years later, several of the same suburbs faced renewed inundation threats, with fewer residents able to afford adequate cover. The issue is increasingly not zero insurance but partial protection. “In high-risk flood zones, many households do not carry flood cover because premiums are simply out of reach,” said Dr Karl Mallon, chief executive of Climate Valuation. Underinsurance leaves families vulnerable to financial ruin—and, collectively, sets the stage for slower recoveries and deeper long-term socioeconomic damage.

What it will take to bend the risk curve

The assessment’s message is blunt: impacts are already here and will intensify. Yet the magnitude of future damage is still shaped by choices made this decade. Copeman said the findings should spur urgent action. “We need deep cuts to climate pollution and a surge in funding for adaptation—now. The question isn’t whether impacts arrive; it’s how hard they hit and who can get back on their feet.”

Experts point to a suite of practical steps that can reduce losses and help keep insurance viable:

• Strengthen building codes for wind, heat and flood, and prioritize retrofits for older homes.
• Invest in levees, drainage, fire breaks and coastal buffers—including restored wetlands and mangroves—to blunt extremes.
• Reform land-use planning to avoid or gradually phase out development in the highest-risk zones, paired with fair relocation pathways.
• Target subsidies and risk-reduction grants to low-income households and remote communities to prevent climate-driven inequality.
• Improve early-warning systems, evacuation planning and community resilience hubs for prolonged heat and disaster events.

These measures are not a substitute for cutting emissions. Without global progress to stabilize temperatures, adaptation costs will mount and some areas may tip into practical uninsurability. But with robust risk reduction, analysts say premiums can be tempered and long-term economic shocks softened.

A future still in play

Queensland’s experience foreshadows a broader national reality: rising heat, heavier downpours, cyclones trending toward higher intensity, and fire seasons supercharged by warmer, drier conditions. The longer high emissions persist, the more the “rare” becomes routine—and the more difficult it becomes to insure, finance and rebuild entire neighborhoods after repeated hits.

The state’s choice is stark but actionable. Lock in sustained emissions cuts to help cap warming; deploy serious, place-based adaptation to keep communities safe; and align planning and insurance settings with the climate we have, not the one we wish we still lived in. As Copeman put it, “The trajectory isn’t fixed. We can still decide how much worse this gets—and how well we protect the people and places we love.”