EU Emissions Trading System sustains downward trend in covered emissions

Verified figures for 2025 confirm another year of decline in greenhouse gas output from installations covered by the EU Emissions Trading System, registering a 1.3% drop compared to 2024. Since its launch in 2005, the ETS has helped cut emissions from participating sectors by roughly half, and the trajectory remains aligned with the 2030 goal of a 62% reduction.

Power sector: solar accelerates, emissions intensity eases

Despite higher overall electricity generation in 2025, emissions from fossil-fuelled power plants edged down. Net EU electricity output rose by 1.7% year-on-year, while emissions from combustion in the power sector slipped by 0.4%. The shift reflects a cleaner generation mix and an improving emissions intensity per kilowatt-hour.

• Renewables supplied 47.3% of total electricity, up slightly from 47.2% in 2024.
• Solar posted the standout gain, with generation up 24.6% year-on-year.
• Lower wind speeds and reduced rainfall in Northern Europe curbed wind and hydropower output.
• Solar overtook hydropower for the first time, becoming the EU’s second-largest renewable source after wind.
• Fossil-based electricity production increased by 3.5% year-on-year, yet emissions fell due to a continued pivot away from coal.
• Coal power emissions dropped by 6.8%, while electricity generation from natural gas rose by 11.4%.

The combination of surging solar output and a fuel switch from coal toward gas helped offset weather-related dips in wind and hydropower. The result: modestly higher electricity production with slightly lower emissions from fossil generation.

Industry: contraction meets transformation

Energy-intensive industries recorded a 2.5% decrease in emissions. The reduction was led by the cement sector alongside iron and steel, reflecting both weaker activity—particularly in construction—and ongoing shifts driven by the clean energy transition. Patterns are uneven across subsectors, and further assessment is underway to parse structural changes from cyclical effects.

Aviation and maritime: diverging trends

Emissions from aircraft operators covered by the ETS ticked up slightly versus 2024, consistent with rising traffic. Maritime emissions moved in the opposite direction, falling by around 3% based on reports received so far.

These findings reflect submissions made by Member States up to 31 March 2026 for stationary installations, maritime, and aircraft operators. While the dataset captures the vast majority of entities in scope, reporting for aviation and maritime continues, and final figures may adjust as additional data are verified.

Why this matters for 2030

The 2025 results reinforce a long-term pattern: the ETS is steadily squeezing carbon out of the power sector and nudging industry toward lower-emission processes. Rapid solar deployment, incremental gains in the renewable share of the power mix, and the declining role of coal are central to this progress. At the same time, the data highlight sensitivities to weather and economic cycles—variables that can sway annual outcomes even as the overall direction remains clear.

Maintaining momentum toward the 62% cut by 2030 will hinge on continued expansion of renewables and grids, improved flexibility and storage, efficiency in industry, and sustained investment in low-carbon technologies. As aviation and maritime integration into carbon markets deepens, more complete reporting will further clarify their emissions pathways and contributions to the EU’s climate goals.