Skeptical Science New Research for Week #13 2026

This week’s scan of new climate and energy research spans the planetary dashboard, the thorniest trade‑offs in the energy transition, and fresh insights into impacts, risks, and solutions. The picture that emerges is consistent and urgent: human influence continues to drive rapid warming and extreme events, while policy, technology, and social choices determine whether momentum shifts toward resilience and decarbonization.

The climate system: the numbers

• Updated global indicators show human-driven warming averaging about 1.14°C over 2013–2022, reaching roughly 1.26°C in 2022, with the pace exceeding 0.2°C per decade. Record-high greenhouse gas emissions over the past decade, alongside weaker aerosol cooling, explain much of the acceleration—though there are tentative signs emissions growth is slowing.
• A global climate review for 2025 confirms 2015–2025 as the warmest 11-year span on record. The year 2025 ranked near the top for heat—about 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Intensifying marine heat, glacier loss, and both Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice deficits continued. For the first time, the planet’s energy imbalance was tracked alongside other key indicators.
• Rapid attribution of the record-shattering March 2026 heat across western North America finds such an event would have been virtually impossible without human-caused warming. Even in today’s climate, it remains an unusually rare occurrence.

Geoengineering, mitigation, and the energy transition

• Simulations of stratospheric aerosol interventions designed to cool the planet show potential downsides for solar power: more weeks with low photovoltaic and concentrated solar output are projected in many regions compared with a moderate-emissions future. Some areas could see modest benefits, but midlatitudes face the largest relative PV reductions. Conclusion: managing the climate with aerosols could complicate solar-centric decarbonization plans.
• New theoretical work on phasing out fossil supply highlights the political economy of “leaving it in the ground,” emphasizing the central role of foregone extraction rents. Options explored include revoking private claims to future rents, crafting compensation for producer countries, and securing durable commitments to align feasibility with fairness.
• Electric systems face surging demand from data centers, electrification, and manufacturing. Utilities and regulators are experimenting with novel tariffs for large loads, while studies point to near-term, firm clean capacity from enhanced geothermal if permitting, drilling resources, and transmission access are prioritized. Separate analyses urge making better use of existing grids to relieve rate pressure, and warn that domestic supply-chain bottlenecks—not technology—are the binding constraint for scaling advanced nuclear.
• Energy security assessments underscore how dependence on imported fossil fuels heightens vulnerability to geopolitical shocks, while rapid deployment of electrified technologies—EVs, heat pumps, wind, solar, storage—can buffer economies.

Methods, models, and diagnostics

• Researchers call for robust, shared hindcast infrastructure to improve climate predictability and sectoral decision-making.
• A Bayesian toolkit is introduced to estimate extreme-temperature climatologies across multiple scenarios, aiding risk assessment and adaptation planning.
• High-resolution regional modeling efforts examine heatwave representation, while other studies probe how aerosols from biomass burning are vertically and chemically depicted in global models, and how injection latitude shapes short-term responses to stratospheric aerosol interventions.
• Work on Earth system dynamics disentangles contributions from orbital forcing, CO2, and ice feedbacks over Quaternary climate swings—context that sharpens attribution and projection skill.

Water, fire, and compound extremes

• Negative CO2 emissions scenarios are tested for their potential to reduce extremes in the land hydrological cycle, with implications for the timing and magnitude of drought and flood risks.
• Abrupt shifts from drought to pluvial conditions are intensifying, driven by greenhouse gases and land–atmosphere feedbacks, challenging water management.
• Compound hot–dry events have become more hazardous globally over the past century due to human influence.
• Marine heatwaves are increasing on the Patagonian Shelf, with cascading ecological and fisheries impacts.
• Wildfire susceptibility in Mediterranean forests of Türkiye is projected to rise under future climates, as shown by machine‑learning analyses.
• East China’s winter convective environments display opposing trends under the tug-of-war between aerosols and greenhouse gases.

Land, soils, and ecosystems

• Drained organic forest soils in cool and boreal regions are confirmed as significant greenhouse gas sources, supporting more precise, site‑specific emission factors.
• A boreal peatland’s redox‑active organic matter exhibits resistance to projected climate perturbations, suggesting nuanced responses of carbon stores.
• Nine years of warming and added nitrogen in Tibetan grasslands accelerated soil carbon losses without major shifts in bulk chemical structure.
• Accounting for plant functional diversity in land surface models proves critical for accurately simulating the terrestrial carbon cycle in certain biomes and seasons.
• A tropical invasive sea urchin faces evolving thermal risks and opportunities in a rapidly warming sea, illustrating how species redistributions can reshape coastal ecosystems.

Food systems and agriculture

• Behavioral and institutional “missteps” in the food chain dominate emissions from food loss and waste, highlighting where governance and practice can deliver large, fast cuts.
• A synthesis of rice-farming interventions maps which practices most effectively curb methane while sustaining yields.
• Remote sensing and real‑time tools are tested to design climate adaptations in coconut plantations, from water stress monitoring to pest risks.
• Projected changes in daily precipitation frequencies across parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast point to shifting flood and drought exposure.
• A new food security index across 162 countries identifies who is most at risk and pinpoints the specific pillars—availability, access, utilization, sustainability—driving vulnerability.

Society, policy, and communication

• Letter‑writing with one’s future self increased vividness of that future identity but showed limited to no effects on climate action intentions or support for advocacy, challenging assumptions about this behavioral lever.
• Analyses of national mitigation pathways show high‑ambition, cross‑sector action can drive steep emission cuts within a decade. Elsewhere, retiring coal plants remains a political economy hurdle; emergency orders prolonging the life of aging facilities carry substantial, rising costs.
• Studies spotlight methane super‑emitters in the oil and gas sector, suggesting targeted abatement opportunities with outsized benefits.
• Public acceptance work in Spain unpacks how place-based social negotiation shapes wind siting; urban planners across North America share practical frameworks to align equity with climate and housing goals.
• Climate disinformation is evolving into a national security concern, calling for coordinated responses across government, civil society, and industry.
• Guidance on biomass carbon removal and storage proposes protocol improvements to ensure durability and credibility.
• Aviation research advances contrail forecasting for flight planning to cut warming impacts.
• In one U.S. state, clean-energy jobs have surged since 2020—led by efficiency work like heat pumps and weatherization—illustrating how decarbonization is already reshaping regional economies.
• Solar geoengineering assessments stress that, while such methods might suppress temperatures, outcomes remain deeply uncertain and fraught with governance and geopolitical risks. More research is urged—alongside a clear-eyed focus on cutting emissions.

Taken together, this week’s findings reaffirm a simple calculus: the physical climate is changing fast; our tools to understand, predict, and manage risk are improving; and the viability of a livable future hinges on accelerating real-world deployment of proven solutions while steering clear of false shortcuts.