Forecast at a glance

• Where it will rain: Highlands east and west of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, much of the Rift Valley, the Southeastern Lowlands, and the Coast.
• Intensity: Isolated heavy downpours are likely in parts of these regions, especially from Thursday onward.
• Drier pockets: Northeastern and northwestern Kenya will be largely sunny and dry, though brief, localized showers can still occur.
• Temperatures: Daytime highs above 30°C expected along the Coast and in parts of the northeast and northwest; chilly nights below 10°C possible in sections of the Highlands east of the Rift, the Central Rift, and parts of the North Rift, including areas near Mt. Kilimanjaro.

What to expect by region

Lake Victoria Basin and the western highlands are likely to see frequent showers and thunderstorms, with some bursts of intense rainfall that could trigger localised flooding in low-lying or poorly drained spots. The Rift Valley will experience scattered rainfall, varying from brief showers to occasional heavier spells, depending on elevation and storm tracks.

Across the Highlands east of the Rift Valley, including many central counties, rainy conditions will build through midweek into the weekend, with cool, damp mornings and potential afternoon or evening storms. The Southeastern Lowlands should prepare for on-and-off showers that may intensify toward the end of the week, improving pasture and soil moisture but also posing short-lived flooding risks where runoff concentrates.

Coastal counties look set for warm, humid days punctuated by showers and thunderstorms, particularly later in the period. While much of the northeast and northwest will remain largely sunny and hot, brief showers cannot be ruled out, especially near areas of higher ground or along storm outflows.

Temperature swings: hot days, cold nights

Heat will persist along the Coast and across parts of northeastern and northwestern Kenya, with several locations topping 30°C during the afternoon. In contrast, elevated areas—particularly the Highlands east of the Rift and stretches of the Central and North Rift—will contend with markedly cooler nights. In some spots, nighttime temperatures could slip below 10°C, an effect amplified near Mt. Kilimanjaro and other high-altitude zones.

Why this matters now

The onset of the long rains is critical for water supplies, rangelands, and agriculture, recharging rivers and aquifers after the hotter months. Early-season rain also supports ecosystems stressed by prolonged dry spells. However, as soils wet up, the risk of flash floods and landslides can rise quickly—especially on steep slopes and in areas with recent land disturbance. Urban centres, where drainage is often overwhelmed by intense downpours, should anticipate possible road flooding and transport delays.

Practical guidance

• Flood safety: Avoid crossing flooded roads or bridges; small streams can swell rapidly during heavy bursts.
• Landslide awareness: Residents in hilly areas should watch for warning signs like new cracks, tilting trees, or sudden changes in water flow.
• Travel and transport: Plan for slower commutes; check local updates before setting out, especially in flood-prone corridors.
• Farming activities: Use early rains to establish crops but monitor fields for waterlogging; consider staggered planting to spread risk.
• Health and hygiene: Clear drains and gutters to prevent standing water; reduce mosquito breeding sites as humidity rises.
• Livestock and wildlife: Ensure access to higher ground during intense storms; secure feed and veterinary supplies ahead of the wettest days.

The week ahead

From March 17 to 23, rainfall will be a defining feature across much of the country, with the strongest pulses expected from Thursday. While many will welcome the return of dependable seasonal rains, the combination of hot days, cooler nights, and occasional heavy downpours calls for vigilance. Staying alert to daily forecasts and local advisories will help households, farmers, and travelers navigate the shifting conditions as the wet season gathers pace.