Australia’s opposition ditches commitment to net zero emissions

Australia’s centre-right opposition has confirmed it will abandon the nation’s pledge to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 if it returns to government—an about-face that comes as the country seeks to co-host the next UN climate summit with Pacific Island nations.

The move, announced after days of internal deliberations, marks a decisive shift away from a policy the Liberal Party adopted in 2021 under a previous leader. Opposition leader Sussan Ley said the coalition would no longer be bound to the 2050 target, arguing that any climate measures must be “affordable, responsible and achievable.” While she described net zero as a welcome destination in principle, she insisted it should be reached through market forces rather than government intervention, with energy costs for households and businesses taking priority.

The decision follows a similar step by the National Party—its conservative coalition partner—which recently voted to drop its own 2050 commitment. The two parties are set to meet to formalize a joint stance, potentially reshaping Australia’s climate policy debate ahead of the next election.

In stark contrast, the federal government has elevated climate policy to the centre of its economic strategy. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s administration has committed billions of dollars to solar and wind projects and to building a domestic clean manufacturing sector, positioning the country as a future renewable energy powerhouse. The government has also set a goal of cutting emissions by as much as 70 percent from 2005 levels over the next decade and is campaigning to co-host the upcoming UN climate talks with Pacific Island neighbours—some of the most climate-exposed countries on Earth.

Albanese criticised the opposition’s reversal, warning it signals an unwillingness to act decisively on climate while doing little to ensure dependable, affordable power. His comments underscore the re-emergence of Australia’s long-running “climate wars,” a political divide that has repeatedly stalled policy and investment.

That domestic rift is unfolding against a complex backdrop. Australia’s economy remains deeply entwined with fossil fuels: it is among the world’s largest coal exporters, holds vast coal reserves, and still directs substantial public support to fossil fuel industries. Iron ore—produced through emissions-intensive mining—remains the country’s most valuable export, reinforcing the tension between short-term economic reliance on carbon-heavy sectors and long-term climate risk.

The risks are far from theoretical. Government-commissioned analysis released in September warned that rising seas and escalating flood hazards linked to climate change could jeopardize the homes and livelihoods of more than a million people by mid-century. Heat-related illness and deaths are projected to increase sharply as summers intensify. Australia already has the world’s highest rate of skin cancer, with nearly 19,000 melanoma diagnoses estimated for 2024, highlighting the country’s acute exposure to a warming, sun-baked climate.

Environmental advocates say the opposition’s move sends a damaging signal to investors and communities that have begun planning around long-term climate goals. The Climate Council argued that abandoning the 2050 target would accelerate climate impacts—more dangerous fires, floods and heatwaves—and described the shift as a failure of duty to protect Australians’ health and safety. The group also warned that stepping back from net zero risks alienating voters who increasingly expect clear, credible action.

The timing is conspicuous. Australia is actively seeking to co-host the next UN climate conference with Pacific Island states. These neighbours, facing rising seas and cyclones intensified by warmer oceans, have urged major emitters to strengthen—not weaken—long-term commitments. Any wavering on net zero could complicate Australia’s diplomatic pitch and its aspiration to lead in regional climate diplomacy.

For households and industry, the policy gulf presents competing visions. The government is betting on large-scale renewables, electrification and green industry to drive down emissions and costs over time. The opposition is framing climate policy through the lens of immediate energy affordability and a lighter governmental touch. How those narratives land with voters may shape not only Australia’s emissions trajectory but also its credibility on the international stage at a moment when climate-driven disasters are growing in intensity and frequency.

As the coalition formalizes its position, the stakes are clear: Australia must navigate a rapid global shift toward clean energy while managing the legacy weight of its fossil fuel economy. The path it chooses will reverberate across its environment, economy and regional relationships for decades to come.