Komolafe: NUPRC Exceeded Revenue Targets by 18.3% in 2022, 14.6% in 2023, 84.2% in 2024

Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas regulator has posted three consecutive years of outperformance, with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) surpassing its revenue targets by 18.3% in 2022, 14.6% in 2023, and a striking 84.2% in 2024. The momentum comes as the federal government launches a coordinated push to tap global climate finance, inaugurating a technical and steering committee to establish a Nigeria Green Climate Fund and a sovereign carbon credit framework.

Revenue surge and operational rebound

NUPRC’s collections climbed from N3.78 trillion in 2022 to N4.34 trillion in 2023, before accelerating to N12.25 trillion last year. The regulator credits the upswing to reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act and an aggressive focus on transparency, competitiveness, and sustainability.

Operational indicators have also trended upward. Nigeria’s active rig count, which languished at eight in 2021, has risen to more than 40, with total rigs reported at 69 as of October 2025—signaling a broader recovery in exploration and production activity.

At the Global Sustainable Education and Leadership Conference in London, NUPRC’s Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, received a Global Sustainable Leadership Award, with organizers citing regulatory clarity and investment credibility as drivers of renewed industry confidence. The event, themed around innovation, sustainability, and equitable energy access, underscored the growing expectation that hydrocarbon producers align with a just energy transition.

Communities and accountability

Beyond fiscal indicators, the regulator points to progress in host community relations. Funding under the Host Community Development Trust scheme has now exceeded N350 billion, directing resources to local infrastructure and social projects. The commission says this has helped calm previously tense areas and reduce disruption to operations.

Komolafe emphasized that the commission’s strategy is designed to maximize value from Nigeria’s hydrocarbon base while accelerating transition pathways. He framed the approach as building a “transparent and investment-friendly system” that anchors Nigeria’s reliability as a supplier and its role as a responsible partner in global energy markets.

Nigeria moves to capture climate finance

In Abuja, the Ministry of Petroleum Resources inaugurated a technical and steering committee to design and operationalize the Nigeria Green Climate Fund and a sovereign carbon credits architecture. The initiative aims to connect Nigeria’s emission-reduction potential—particularly in methane abatement and flare capture—to rapidly expanding global markets for verified carbon units.

According to the ministry, the global voluntary carbon market could exceed $50 billion by 2030 and reach $1 trillion by 2037. Yet Africa, responsible for less than 3% of global emissions, still attracts under 5% of climate finance flows. The ministry argues that correcting that imbalance requires credible institutions, rigorous measurement, and bankable project pipelines.

Methane, which is 84 times more potent than CO₂ over a 20-year period, places Nigeria’s petroleum sector at the center of cost-effective climate solutions. Under its updated Nationally Determined Contributions, Nigeria has pledged to reduce emissions by 47% by 2030—equivalent to around 60 million metric tonnes—conditional on international support.

Flaring down, credits up

Gas flaring has fallen from roughly 2.5 billion standard cubic feet per day in 2000 to about 700 million today. Despite this progress, residual flaring still emits more than 25 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent annually. Properly quantified and traded, those avoided emissions could deliver more than $500 million in yearly revenue, the ministry estimates—capital that could be recycled into grid modernization, clean cooking, and decentralized renewables.

Blueprint for a bankable transition

Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan carries an investment requirement of about $1.9 trillion by 2060, with an estimated $410 billion expected from climate finance and carbon markets. The newly inaugurated committee has been tasked to:

• Design the institutional and regulatory framework for a Nigeria Green Climate Fund.
• Establish a sovereign carbon credit registry aligned with UNFCCC standards and best practice on measurement, reporting, and verification.
• Identify eligible project classes across flare reduction, methane abatement, renewables, and nature-based solutions.
• Recommend sustainable financing structures and transparent revenue-sharing models.

Members have a 10-week deadline to present their report. The Ministry indicated it is coordinating with domestic institutions and international partners, including Black River Switzerland, to ensure the resultant carbon market platform is credible and investable. Officials described the effort as economic statecraft and climate diplomacy—an intentional transition pathway rather than a reactive one.

Signals from London, stakes at home

The recognition for Komolafe in London—alongside other honorees from the global energy and civic space—reinforces the message that Nigeria seeks to pair hydrocarbon discipline with climate ambition. For regulators, that means continuing to push down flaring and methane intensity while shoring up community trust. For the broader energy system, it means channeling new revenues into diversified infrastructure, improved efficiency, and clean energy access.

With revenue outperformance now established and a national framework for carbon markets taking shape, Nigeria is positioning to capture a larger share of the emerging climate economy. The test ahead lies in execution: building institutions that can turn avoided emissions into investable assets, and ensuring that the dividends fund resilient, low-carbon growth across the federation.